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Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, has advocated for continued interest rate cuts as euro-area inflation is projected to hit 2% in the first half of 2025. He noted that inflation is slowing and moving towards the ECB's target, suggesting a favorable environment for further rate reductions.
The US Dollar Index has rallied 7% since October 2024, driven by expectations of Trump's economic policies and a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. While a potential rate cut in December may support dollar strength, geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions could create volatility, with technical analysis suggesting a range-bound trading scenario for 2025. Historical patterns indicate potential dollar weakness late in the year, followed by renewed strength in January.
The Canadian economy saw a modest 0.1% growth in October, following a similar increase in September. This comes after a weaker-than-expected third quarter, which recorded an annualized growth of just 1%, prompting the Bank of Canada to consider further rate cuts.
The Bank of England has warned that rising global trade barriers could negatively impact growth and increase inflation uncertainty, leading to financial market volatility and higher borrowing costs. Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the risks of reduced international cooperation and the potential for a fragmented global economy, while emphasizing the resilience of the U.K. banking sector. The BoE plans to conduct full stress tests on banks every two years starting in 2025 to enhance competitiveness and address emerging financial risks.
EU inflation has risen to 2.3% in November, prompting speculation about the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision on December 12. Despite this increase, investors remain optimistic about easing monetary policy, while the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points before Christmas.
Stock futures rose Friday, capping a strong month for equities, with the Dow gaining 1% this week and over 7% in November, its best month since last year. Chip stocks surged following reports of potential new U.S. restrictions on semiconductor sales to China, while gold and silver prices faced significant monthly declines. Trading is expected to be light ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
India's forex reserves fell by $1.31 billion to $656.582 billion for the week ending November 22, according to the Reserve Bank of India. This decline follows a record drop of $17.761 billion the previous week. The reserves, which peaked at $704.885 billion in late September, have been decreasing amid pressure on the rupee.
The GDP growth slowed to 5.4% in the September quarter, the lowest in seven quarters and below the RBI's 7% projection, primarily due to declines in manufacturing and mining. ICRA's Aditi Nayar anticipates a potential miss of Rs 1 trillion in government capex for the year but remains optimistic about agricultural growth in the second half, influenced by normal monsoon conditions. She predicts a status quo in December's monetary policy, with a higher chance of a rate cut in February.
The Bank of England has issued a warning that increased trade barriers could negatively impact global growth and create uncertainty surrounding inflation. This situation may lead to heightened volatility in financial markets, raising concerns among investors and policymakers alike.
India's fiscal deficit reached 46.5% of the FY25 target during the April-October period, slightly up from 45% the previous year. Government capital expenditure was subdued, with only 42% of the budget utilized compared to 54.7% in the same timeframe last fiscal year. Experts suggest the government is on track to meet the 4.9% fiscal deficit target set in the Union Budget 2024-25.
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